What predicts the demand and sale of vacant public properties? Urban greening and gentrification in Chicago

Many post-industrial U.S. cities have developed programs to promote the greening of publicly-owned vacant lots, including initiatives in which homeowners can purchase nearby lots and turn them into yards or community gardens. These initiatives can result in greener landscapes in marginalized communities, but we know little about the spatial patterns of vacant land disposition and whether demand for and sale of publicly-owned lots are stronger in gentrifying neighborhoods. We examined the Chicago Large Lot Program and used neighborhood sociodemographic, environmental, and safety factors to predict the demand and sale of vacant lots. We found that the demand for Large Lots was significantly higher in tracts showing early signs of gentrification between 2000 and 2015 (those with higher increases of college graduates and White residents) and for tracts located closer to downtown. Also, the percentage of Large Lots sold was significantly larger in areas closer to downtown and farther from Lake Michigan but not associated with gentrification, which might be due to neighborhood political forces seeking to retain public control of vacant lots in gentrifying neighborhoods. Although other studies show that urban greening precedes gentrification, our findings suggest that the demand for urban greening might also follow early gentrification. •The demand for city-owned vacant lots in Chicago is higher in areas at the early stages of gentrification and near downtown.•The percentage of city-owned vacant lots sold is higher in areas near downtown but not in gentrifying areas.•Privately-led greening initiatives might follow the early stages of gentrification.•Environmental gentrification might act in cycles, as greening might both precede and follow gentrification.•Our findings help cities foresee where the demand for publicly-owned vacant lots will be higher.