Three Regimes of Temperature Distribution Change Over Dry Land, Moist Land, and Oceanic Surfaces

Climate model simulations project different regimes of summertime temperature distribution changes under a quadrupling of CO2 for dry land, moist land, and oceanic surfaces. The entire temperature distribution shifts over dry land surfaces, while moist land surfaces feature an elongated upper tail of the distribution, with extremes increasing more than the corresponding means by ∼20% of the global mean warming. Oceanic surfaces show weaker warming relative to land surfaces, with no significant elongation of the upper tail. Dry land surfaces show little change in turbulent sensible (SH) or latent (LH) fluxes, with new balance reached with compensating adjustments among downwelling and upwelling radiative fluxes. By contrast, moist land surfaces show enhanced partitioning of turbulent flux toward SH, while oceanic surfaces show enhanced partitioning toward LH. Amplified warming of extreme temperatures over moist land surfaces is attributed to suppressed evapotranspiration and larger Bowen ratios. Key Points Dry land, moist land, and oceanic surfaces experience different changes in summertime mean and extreme temperatures Moist land surfaces feature larger warming in extreme‐relative‐to‐mean temperatures, while dry surfaces warm more in the mean Amplified warming in extreme temperatures is attributed to suppressed evapotranspiration and larger Bowen ratios