Population expansion and breeding success of Bearded Vultures Gypaetus barbatus in the French Pyrenees: results from long‐term population monitoring

Based on monitoring of Bearded Vultures over 24 years in the French Pyrenees, we assessed factors explaining temporal and spatial variations in numbers and breeding performance. The number of territorial pairs increased throughout the study period from 16 in 1994 to 44 in 2017. No significant negative trends in mean productivity (fledglings per territorial pair) were detected with increasing population size. Colonization probability increased significantly with breeding population size the previous year and with the regular provision of supplementary food in the territory the winter when colonization occurred. Colonization of new territories simultaneously increased the distribution range and local densities, but we found no effect of number of near neighbours on productivity. Pairs having bred less than 5 years together had a much lower probability of laying clutches, and higher lay rates were observed inside or close to protected areas after accounting for pair‐bond length, so productivity of territories inside protected areas was significantly higher. Nest success decreased with advanced lay date and increased with winter food abundance. Nesting failures in the study area were frequently associated with harsh weather. Additionally, disturbance by human activities was the second most important identified cause of breeding failure. The probability of failing due to disturbance was higher in western areas (where breeding areas are more accessible to humans), outside protected areas, and has increased with time. After a failure due to disturbance, there was a significantly higher probability of not producing a clutch the following year as compared with pairs that had not failed or had failed due to other causes, indicating deferred effects of disturbance. Our results show the benefits of conservation management actions, such as implementation of protected areas or designed supplementary food programmes in winter, to help range expansion. On the other hand, we did not find a significant effect of winter supplementary food on productivity. Management of feeding sites should be adapted to more specific planning, being used only in areas where natural food availability is scarce, avoiding its use close to breeding sites when juveniles disperse, and targeted mainly to help range expansion. Our results also highlight the importance of maintaining or enhancing good populations of wild ungulates and regulating human activities around nesting sites of this threatene