IMPLEMENTING RESERVOIR OPERATION IN A PROBABILISTIC FLOOD FORECAST SYSTEM AND ITS APPLICATION TO 2015 KINU RIVER FLOOD

Flood is one of the major natural disasters causing serious damage around the world. Though many flood prediction systems have been developed recently, most of them do not consider reservoir operation in realtime flood forecast and alerting. This study aims to improve the accuracy of numerical flood prediction by implementing reservoir operation for flood control into our flood forecast system. The operation of each reservoir were formulated in the model based on the publicly-opened flood control procedures and reservoir parameters. The developed system was tested for the flash flood in Tone River basin in 2015, and we conducted the simulation using observed precipitation and the hindcast experiment using ensemble weather prediction. The observed-precipitation simulation confirmed that implementing reservoir operation improved the model performance, and the hindcast results show that the forecast skill of peak discharge was improved.