Quantifying sand delivery to deep water during changing sea‐level: Numerical models from the Quaternary Brazos Icehouse continental margin

Sequence stratigraphy for clastic continental margins predicts the development of sand‐rich turbidite deposits during specific times in relation to base‐level cycles. It is now widely understood that deltas can extend to the shelf‐edge forced by high sediment flux and/or base level, providing a direct connection to transfer sediment and sand to the slope and basin floor even during high base level periods. Herein, we build a stratigraphic forward model for the last 120 kyr of the fluvio‐deltaic to deep‐water Brazos system (USA) where sediment partitioning along an Icehouse continental margin can be evaluated. The reduced‐complexity stratigraphic forward model employs geologically constrained input parameters and mass balance. The modelled architecture is consistent with the location of depositional units previously mapped in the shelf. Sand bypasses the shelf and upper slope between 35 to 15 kyr before present and only about 20%–30% of all the sediment and sand supplied to the system is transferred to deep water. Several scenarios based on the initial Brazos model investigate the relationships between base level and deep‐water sand ratio (DWSR). DWSR is defined as the relative amount of sand transferred to the deep‐water portions of the system subdivided by the total sand input to the model. Linear correlations between DWSR and base level change rates or base level are very poor. Short‐term variability due to local processes (for example avulsions) is superimposed to the long‐term trends and mask the base level signal. DWSR for an entire base‐level cycle is mainly controlled by the proportion of time the delta stays docked at the shelf‐edge. Stratigraphic forward models are useful to complement field observations and quantify how different processes control stratigraphy, which is important for making predictions in areas with limited information. Sand and sediment transfer to deep water in Icehouse continental margins is quantified departing from an original model of the Brazos fluvio‐deltaic system (USA). Short‐term variability due to local process is superimposed to long‐term trends and masks the base level signal. However, for entire base level cycle sand transferred to deep water is mainly controlled by the proportion of time in which the delta remains docked at the shelf‐edge.