Strong Ground Motion Simulation for Forecasting the Probable Seismic Impacts in the Territory of the Republic of North Ossetia–Alania

—The models based on the empirical data are proposed for probabilistic forecasting the characteristics of strong ground motions (SGM) from the earthquakes, potentially dangerous for the territory of the Republic of North Ossetia–Alania. We consider the models of SGM characteristics that are most important in the engineering practice (macroseismic intensities of ground shaking, peak ground accelerations, periods, durations, spectra, and strong-motion accelerograms) in the vicinity of the sources of earthquakes of different magnitudes and at different distances from the sources in application to the seismogeological conditions of the study region. The models are developed using both the conventional statistical analysis of a large amount of data on instrumental recording and macroseismic description of the strong and perceivable earthquakes in the Caucasus and other seismically active regions of the world and a new method for reconstructing the spectra of the strong earthquakes from their macroseismic field. The cross-comparison of the estimates obtained based on the proposed models with each other and with the estimates obtained by the other authors has shown that they are fairly realistic and reliable.