Selective disappearance of frail juveniles: consequences for understanding social dominance in adult male elephant seals

Individual heterogeneity is variation in trait expression observed among individuals of a population. Individual heterogeneity in the pre‐breeder stage of development is of importance given its eventual contribution to the breeding population's overall reproductive performance. Yet most studies do not consider the role of individual heterogeneity in pre‐breeders when investigating population processes. We investigated individual heterogeneity in the survival and recruitment probabilities of pre‐breeding male southern elephant seals Mirounga leonina using 34 years of data collected at Marion Island. Elephant seals are highly polygynous capital breeders, with few male offspring surviving to compete in breeding events and even fewer breeding successfully. Specifically, we fitted finite‐mixture models with two hidden groups that represented ‘robust’ and ‘frail’ individuals and compared the demographic rates of these groups to that of the population. Survival and recruitment as first‐time subordinate breeders could be distinguished between groups. Survival of both robust and frail pre‐breeders decreased from age 2, whilst differences between groups were maintained (ontogeny processes). Frail pre‐breeders had a much lower survival than the population average, suggesting that frail individuals were preferentially removed from the population (selective disappearance). Differences in recruitment probabilities were apparent from age 5 (earliest recorded age) and increased until age 7, with most recruits comprising robust pre‐breeders. Male pre‐breeders were more likely to be robust at age 2 when born in years with few conspecifics, suggesting that individual heterogeneity was determined, in part, by density‐dependent effects. A population projection model revealed that male breeders of every age class never consisted of more than 5% of frail recruits. Rather, the breeding population increasingly consisted of robust recruits that obtained social dominance with age. We demonstrated that individual heterogeneity in male pre‐breeder demographic rates was present and persistent throughout much of development and determined the proportion of adult males that obtained social dominance.