Increasing temperatures increase the risk of reproductive failure in a near threatened alpine ground‐nesting bird, the Cape Rockjumper Chaetops frenatus

A major cause of reproductive failure in birds is nest predation. Predation risk depends on predator type, as predators vary in their ecology and sensory modalities (e.g. visual vs. olfactory). Snakes (generally olfactory predators) are a major nest predator for small birds, with predation strongly associated with higher temperatures. We investigated nest survival in a ground‐nesting alpine species, the Cape Rockjumper Chaetops frenatus, endemic to alpine fynbos in southwestern South Africa. We collected 3 years of nest data, testing whether nest survival was related to (1) habitat stage (early post‐fire vs. late post‐fire habitat, ≤ 3 and > 3 years since fire respectively), (2) nest concealment and (3) temperature. We found that nests had better survival at lower temperatures, with snake predation (our main source of predation) increasing in higher temperatures.