Forecasting the video data traffic of 5 G services in south korea

•South korea has one of the world's most active telecommunication markets.•Telecommunication traffic is rapidly increasing with the rapid evolution of mobile communication services.•The 5 G service enables new immersive and interactive experiences.•This study forecast the diffusion of 5 G service users as well as the data traffic growth. Along with the rapid evolution of mobile communication services, popularization of smartphones, and increase in traffic service usage, data traffic has also grown rapidly. Anticipating massive data traffic growth owing to the launch of the fifth-generation (5 G) mobile communication service in 2019, this study analyzes and forecasts: 1) the number of 5 G users using a logistic model, 2) consumer preference for 5 G services using a mixed logit model, and 3) 5 G data traffic increase using sensitivity analysis. The results indicate that data traffic would rapidly increase for 5 G services: the number of 5 G users is estimated to be 1.560 million by 2019, which will increase to 3.475 million by 2020 and 37.340 million by the end of 2025. Data traffic growth is predicted to reach 46 PB by the end of 2019, 129 PB by 2020, and 342 PB by 2021, after which it is projected to rapidly rise to 1,343 PB by 2022 and to 6,340 PB by 2025. The findings of this study provide a reference point for annual investment and marketing strategies of communication companies.