Changing patterns of mortality during the COVID-19 pandemic: Population-based modelling to understand palliative care implications

Background: COVID-19 has directly and indirectly caused high mortality worldwide. Aim: To explore patterns of mortality during the COVID-19 pandemic and implications for palliative care, service planning and research. Design: Descriptive analysis and population-based modelling of routine data. Participants and setting: All deaths registered in England and Wales between 7 March and 15 May 2020. We described the following mortality categories by age, gender and place of death: (1) baseline deaths (deaths that would typically occur in a given period); (2) COVID-19 deaths and (3) additional deaths not directly attributed to COVID-19. We estimated the proportion of people who died from COVID-19 who might have been in their last year of life in the absence of the pandemic using simple modelling with explicit assumptions. Results: During the first 10 weeks of the pandemic, there were 101,614 baseline deaths, 41,105 COVID-19 deaths and 14,520 additional deaths. Deaths in care homes increased by 220%, while home and hospital deaths increased by 77% and 90%, respectively. Hospice deaths fell by 20%. Additional deaths were among older people (86% aged ⩾ 75 years), and most occurred in care homes (56%) and at home (43%). We estimate that 22% (13%–31%) of COVID-19 deaths occurred among people who might have been in their last year of life in the absence of the pandemic. Conclusion: The COVID-19 pandemic has led to a surge in palliative care needs. Health and social care systems must ensure availability of palliative care to support people with severe COVID-19, particularly in care homes.