Integrating physiology with remote sensing to advance the prediction of coral bleaching events

Due to global climate change, very large areas of reef are susceptible to warming-induced coral bleaching, leaving coral reef stakeholders reliant upon remote sensing forecasts of coral bleaching for estimates of when and where bleaching will occur. Coral bleaching prediction methods, to date based on satellite sensed sea surface temperature, are being developed further to improve the accuracy of predictions. This review examines the coral physiological and bleaching forecasting literature to identify biological and geophysical parameters that explain variance in coral bleaching and knowledge gaps related to the application of this knowledge to bleaching prediction. Identified areas for the advancement of prediction methods include improvements in sea surface temperature product resolution and past datasets, incorporating the influence of UV irradiance on coral bleaching, and locally-varying thermal bleaching thresholds. More empirical data is necessary for some aspects of bleaching prediction development, though the potential exists for gains in predictive skill to be achieved through the implementation of current physiological and remote sensing knowledge. [Display omitted] •Widely-used satellite-based bleaching prediction tools use thermal dose and duration.•Bleaching thresholds also depend on other factors such as local acclimation.•Abiotic parameters that cause bleaching are measurable by satellite methods.•A photophysiological bleaching prediction tool includes irradiance as a predictor.•Light-at-benthos remote sensing products may advance coral bleaching prediction.