Spatial and Temporal Evaluation of Radar Rainfall Nowcasting Techniques on 1,533 Events

Radar rainfall nowcasting, the process of statistically extrapolating the most recent rainfall observation, is increasingly used for very short range rainfall forecasting (less than 6 hr ahead). We performed a large‐sample analysis of 1,533 events, systematically selected for 4 event durations and 12 lowland catchments (6.5–957 km2), to determine the predictive skill of nowcasting. Four algorithms are tested and compared with Eulerian Persistence: Rainymotion Sparse, Rainymotion DenseRotation, Pysteps deterministic, and Pysteps probabilistic with 20 ensemble members. We focus on the dependency of nowcast skill on event duration, season, catchment size, and location. Maximum skillful lead times increase for longer event durations, due to the more persistent character of these events. For all four event durations, Pysteps deterministic attains the longest average decorrelation times, with 25 min for 1‐hr durations, 40 min for 3 hr, 56 min for 6 hr, and 116 min for 24 hr. During winter, with more persistent stratiform precipitation, we find three times lower mean absolute errors than for convective summer precipitation. Higher skill is also found after spatially upscaling the forecast. Catchment location matters too: Given the prevailing storm movement, two times higher skillful lead times are found downwind than upwind toward the edge of the domain. In most cases, Pysteps algorithms outperform the Rainymotion benchmark algorithms. We speculate that most errors originate from growth and dissipation processes which are not or only partially (stochastically) accounted for. Plain Language Summary Early warning systems are a key instrument for timely responses to flood risk. These warnings depend on accurate weather forecasts. Most numerical weather prediction models have trouble to accurately forecast the timing and especially the location of rainfall on time scales of less than 6 hr. This time frame is important for decisions in small, mountainous, polder, and urban basins, where river discharge responds quickly to rainfall. Radar rainfall nowcasting, the process of statistically extrapolating the most recent rainfall observations, has the potential to provide forecasts up to 6 hr. We considered 1,533 rainfall events to evaluate the quality of five nowcasting methods. Nowcasts are better for longer‐lasting rain storms with relatively low intensity, which typically occur in winter, than for short, intensive storms, which typically occur in summer. Forecasts are