STATE DEPENDENCE IN LABOR MARKET FLUCTUATIONS

This article documents state dependence in labor market fluctuations. Using a Threshold Vector Autoregression (TVAR) model, we establish that the unemployment rate, the job separation rate, and the job-finding rate (JFR) exhibit a larger response to productivity shocks during periods with low aggregate productivity. A Diamond–Mortensen–Pissarides model with endogenous job separation and on-the-job search replicates these empirical regularities well. We calibrate the model to match the standard deviation of the job-transition rates explained by productivity shocks in the TVAR, and show that the model explains 88% of the state dependence in the unemployment rate, 76% for the separation rate and 36% for the JFR. The key channel underpinning state dependence in both job separation and JFRs is the interaction of the firm’s reservation productivity level and the distribution of match-specific idiosyncratic productivity. Results are robust across several variations to the baseline model.