Perceived Community Acceptance of Same-Sex Marriage: Persuasive Press, Projection, and Pluralistic Ignorance

The early twenty-first century witnessed a substantial shift in public opinion about whether same-sex couples should be allowed to legally marry in the United States. By the time the Supreme Court announced its 5-4 decision that same-sex couples had the right to marry in all 50 states, a plurality of opinion polls showed that a majority of Americans favored same-sex marriage (SSM). For example, a Quinnipiac poll in April 2015 found 58% of respondents supported marriage between same-sex couples. In that same month, An ABC–Washington Post poll found a similar level of support (61%). This shift is remarkable considering only one third of Americans supported SSM a decade earlier (Pew Research Center, 2016). However, little is known about whether people recognize the dramatic shift in public opinion that has occurred around them. Perceptions of public opinion do not necessarily mirror public opinion polls, and they are often inaccurate (Mullen & Smith, 1990). Faulty or not, these perceptions matter. A long history of scholarship on social perception signals that beliefs about what others are thinking or doing play an influential role in shaping how people think and behave themselves (Asch, 1955; Deutsch & Gerard, 1955; Fishbein & Ajzen, 2007; Rimal & Lapinski, 2015). For example, people are more likely to express opinions when they believe others agree with them (Glynn, Hayes, & Shanahan, 1997), and they are more likely to adopt behaviors they believe others are doing (Prentice & Miller, 1993). This study fills a gap in our understanding of perceived public opinion about SSM by addressing how two tendencies—the habit of thinking others believe as we do, and the inclination to infer public opinion from the perceived slant of news media coverage—affect perceptions of public support for SSM. Our cross-sectional survey of adults in four major U.S. cities assessed where people believe their communities stand on the issue of SSM. We test the accuracy of these estimates relative to the actual distribution of public opinion in the sample. Further, in this study, we test a model that increases our understanding of the factors that contribute to perceptions of others’ opinions.