Predicting concentration levels of air pollutants by transfer learning and recurrent neural network

Air pollution (AP) poses a great threat to human health, and people are paying more attention than ever to its prediction. Accurate prediction of AP helps people to plan for their outdoor activities and aids protecting human health. In this paper, long–short term memory (LSTM) recurrent neural networks (RNNs) have been used to predict the future concentration of air pollutants (APS) in Macau. Additionally, meteorological data and data on the concentration of APS have been utilized. Moreover, in Macau, some air quality monitoring stations (AQMSs) have less observed data in quantity, and, at the same time, some AQMSs recorded less observed data of certain types of APS. Therefore, the transfer learning and pre-trained neural networks have been employed to assist AQMSs with less observed data to build a neural network with high prediction accuracy. The experimental sample covers a period longer than 12-year and includes daily measurements from several APS as well as other more classical meteorological values. Records from five stations, four out of them are AQMSs and the remaining one is an automatic weather station, have been prepared from the aforesaid period and eventually underwent to computational intelligence techniques to build and extract a prediction knowledge-based system. As shown by experimentation, LSTM RNNs initialized with transfer learning methods have higher prediction accuracy; it incurred shorter training time than randomly initialized recurrent neural networks. •Accurate prediction for air pollutant concentration for stations with fewer data.•The stations have even missing data and multiple nearby station data are processed.•Transfer learning to initialize conveniently recurrent neural networks.•Empirical analysis on a real sample: more than 12 years for one day ahead prediction.•Values from air pollutants as well as classical meteorological data are computed.