Governmental Programming of Regional Budgetary Self-Sufficiency

In the paper, the impact of the features of the Russian model of performance budgeting on the problem of stably low levels of regional budgetary self-sufficiency is discussed. A methodical approach to the structural analysis of the governmental programs of territorial development is proposed, which makes it possible to check territorial proportions and levels of regional budgetary self-sufficiency at the stage of their development. The proposed approach is applied to the "Development of the North Caucasian Federal District until 2025" Governmental Program of the Russian Federation. It is assumed that the predominance of program activities (i.e. the provision of subsidies and budget investments in capital construction) of social nature in the Governmental Program unfolds a spiral of budget expenditures, contributing to the preservation or even reduction of regional budgetary self-sufficiency. Two experiments using mathematical methods for processing statistical data are performed. First, a hypothesis about the presence of negative feedback between the share of program activities of a market nature in the expenditures of the regional consolidated budget and the share of non-repayable transfers in its revenues is substantiated. Secondly, an approach to estimate the validity of the volumes of federal transfers allocated to the regions is proposed. For this purpose, an indicator of regional budgetary self-sufficiency potential is introduced. The information and analytical database of the research includes data on the execution of the regional consolidated budgets in 2001-2017 from the Russian Federal Treasury, as well as budget classification of the Russian Ministry of Finance. Conclusions and results of the work can be used by participants of the national strategic, including budget, planning to improve legislative and methodological foundations of the governmental program management. Further study is supposed to analyze the influence of the principles of the Russian budget system on the process of developing both federal and regional governmental programs, on the nature of relationship between them and, ultimately, on regional development.