Barrier Effect of the Indo-Pacific Maritime Continent on MJO Propagation in Observations and CMIP5 Models

This study explores possible mechanisms for the barrier effect of the Indo-Pacific Maritime Continent (MC) on MJO propagation. In particular, this study examines whether similar mechanisms can be found in both observations and CMIP5 simulations. All models simulate individual MJO events but underestimate the percentage of MJO events propagating into the MC. The simulations are grouped into the top and bottom 50% based on their capability of reproducing the MJO spectral signal. When compared with the observations, the bottom 50% of the simulations significantly underestimate the MJO strength and exaggerate the barrier effect intensity, whereas these discrepancies are not significant in the top 50% of the simulations. From the top 50% of the simulations, the MJO strength, moisture processes, and surface evaporation in the MC all play important roles in constituting the barrier effect. No such evidence is found in observations. The discrepancies may come from small observed sample size and/or misrepresentations of key physical processes in the models. A consistent result is found in the observations and simulations: Whether MJO events can cross the MC depends on the degree to which dominant precipitation over land shifts to over water in the MC as MJO convection centers approach the MC and cross it. This result emphasizes the critical role of precipitation over water in carrying convective signals of the MJO through the MC. The results suggest that diagnosing the model alone on mechanisms for the barrier effect could be misleading; further investigations using a combination of observations, global gridded data, and high-resolution models are needed.