Modeling Optimal Control of the Ecological–Socioeconomic System Water Body–Watershed: Case Study of the White Sea Region

A cognitive model of optimal control of an ecological–socioeconomic system water body–watershed for the case of the White Sea (Beloe more) and its watershed (Belomor’e) is presented. The model includes parameters characterizing the climate, water and terrestrial systems of the sea and its watershed, the economics, fishery, agriculture, mineral resources, and the population. Cognitive modeling is used to study only qualitative changes taking place in the system at different complexes of conditions. The criterion of optimization is the level of living of the population. The scenario considered include various climate conditions, investments in production assets, industrial and domestic waste treatment, and the development of agriculture and fishery. The cognitive model was used to carry out 10 experiments with different scenarios. For each scenario, operation regimes were chosen to ensure the highest population living standard. The highest living standard will be ensured at the scenario that includes favorable climate conditions (warming above the climate norm for 1960–1990), sufficient mineral resources, and investments. The maximal level of agricultural development can cause damage to the environment. The cognitive model as a means for strategic planning has been developed at a qualitative level.