Predictive modelling of illegal fishing in no‐take marine protected areas

Illegal fishing is an acknowledged problem within no‐take areas (NTAs), which are frequently used as a marine conservation management tool. While gathering data on illegal fishing is difficult, it is necessary, as these data enable increased efficiency of compliance patrols, where resources are inherently limited. In particular, information about short‐term temporal variations in illegal fishing in NTAs is needed to guide management and compliance efforts. To address this knowledge gap, daily variations in illegal fishing effort were examined using surveillance cameras at two sites in New South Wales, Australia. Generalised linear modelling (GLM) identified that illegal fishing was significantly greater on non‐working days and during periods with no rain, light winds and slight seas. The GLM developed provided useful predictions of illegal activity in both the NTA used to build the model and in a second nearby NTA. The study demonstrated that illegal fishing was principally concentrated on days with good boating conditions and was greater at the study site closer to boat launching facilities. These insights will assist with future targeting of enforcement, community outreach and management efforts, which should focus on days and sites with an increased likelihood of illegal fishing.