The Impact of Initial Condition and Warm Conveyor Belt Forecast Uncertainty on Variability in the Downstream Waveguide in an ECWMF Case Study

Perturbations to the potential vorticity (PV) waveguide, which can result from latent heat release within the warm conveyor belt (WCB) of midlatitude cyclones, can lead to the downstream radiation of Rossby waves, and in turn high-impact weather events. Previous studies have hypothesized that forecast uncertainty associated with diabatic heating in WCBs can result in large downstream forecast variability; however, these studies have not established a direct connection between the two. This study evaluates the potential impact of latent heating variability in the WCB on subsequent downstream forecasts by applying the ensemble-based sensitivity method to European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) ensemble forecasts of a cyclogenesis event over the North Atlantic. For this case, ensemble members with a more amplified ridge are associated with greater negative PV advection by the irrotational wind, which is associated with stronger lower-tropospheric southerly moisture transport east of the upstream cyclone in the WCB. This transport is sensitive to the pressure trough to the south of the cyclone along the cold front, which in turn is modulated by earlier differences in the motion of the air masses on either side of the front. The position of the cold air behind the front is modulated by upstream tropopause-based PV anomalies, such that a deeper pressure trough is associated with a more progressive flow pattern, originating from Rossby wave breaking over the North Pacific. Overall, these results suggest that more accurate forecasts of upstream PV anomalies and WCBs may reduce forecast uncertainty in the downstream waveguide.