Sustainable Development of Small-Sized Hydropower Plants: Multilevel Decision-Making from Site Selection to Optimal Design

Mountainous terrains have high potential for the development of run-of-river-type small-sized hydropower plants (SHPs). Prioritizing a large number of SHP sites based on their technical, economic, and socio-environmental constraints with limited data is a daunting task. A multilevel framework is developed for effective decision-making at different phases of the project. At level 1, a screening process (based on subjective rating) prioritizes a larger set of potential SHP sites using fuzzy-based multicriteria decision-making method (Fuzzy-MCDM), i.e. pre-feasibility phase. At level 2, the top ranked sites can be evaluated, with additional data, based on their preliminary design and sustainability objectives using the fuzzy quality function deployment (Fuzzy-QFD) method, i.e. feasibility phase. At level 3, collection and analysis of more extensive data are carried out at detailed design phase of the top ranked sites (in level 2) before their implementation. Impact of climate change on design discharge is assessed for optimal design of the SHP using global climate change model and Hydrologic Engineering Centre-Hydraulic Modelling System. The proposed framework is applied on five potential SHP sites in Swat and Chitral districts of Khyber Pakhtunkhwa Province of Pakistan. Finally, the SHP sites were prioritized and the most optimal SHP site out of the five was designated for optimal design. Decision-makers around the globe can apply the framework for identification of most sustainable sites at similar mountainous terrains and their subsequent implementation through private sector, public sector, and public private partnership.