A Predictive Model for 6-Month Mortality in Elderly Patients with Heart Failure

Prediction of short-term mortality in elderly patients with heart failure (HF) would be useful for clinicians when discussing HF management or palliative care.A prospective multicenter cohort study was conducted between July 2014 and July 2018. A total of 504 consecutive elderly patients (age ≥ 75 years) with HF (mean age 85 years, 50% women) were enrolled. We used a multiple logistic regression analysis with stepwise variable selection to select predictive variables and to determine weighted point scores. After analysis, the following variables predicted short-term mortality and comprised the risk score: previous HF admission (3 points), New York Heart Association III or IV (2 points), body mass index < 17.7 kg/m2 (4 points), serum albumin < 3.5 g/dL (9 points), and left ventricular ejection fraction < 50% (2 points). The c-statistic was 0.820. We compared mortality in low-risk (0-6 points, n = 188), intermediate-risk (7-13 points, n = 241), and high-risk (14-20 points, n = 75) groups. A total of 43 (8.5%) patients died within 6 months after discharge. Mortality was significantly higher in groups with higher scores (low-risk group, 0.5%; intermediate-risk group, 9.1%; high-risk group, 26.7%; P < 0.001).We developed a predictive model for 6-month mortality in elderly patients with HF. This risk score could be useful when discussing advanced HF therapies, palliative care, or hospice referral with patients.