Modelling the decadal dynamics of reach‐scale river channel evolution and floodplain turnover in CAESAR‐Lisflood

Sedimentary deposits provide records of environmental change quantifying erosion fluxes conditioned by natural and anthropogenic disturbances. These fluxes are lagged by internal storage, particularly within floodplains, complicating reconstruction of environmental changes. The time sediment remains in storage underpins the interpretation of sedimentary records and accurate monitoring of pollutant fluxes. Turnover time is a measure of the timeframe to erode every floodplain surface. CAESAR‐Lisflood is used to simulate fluvial evolution at reach scale, providing a basis for quantifying environmental changes on the timescales of sediment storage. We evaluate the accuracy of CAESAR‐Lisflood simulations of channel changes and turnover times for alluvial floodplains using historical channel changes reconstructed for 10 reaches in northern England to quantify model accuracy in replicating mean annual erosion, deposition and channel lateral migration rates, alongside planform morphology. Here, a split‐sample testing approach is adopted, whereby five of the reaches were calibrated and the resulting parameter values were applied to the other reaches to evaluate the transferability of parameter settings. The lowest overall integrated error identified the best‐fit simulations and showed that modelled process rates were within ~25–50% of rates from historical reconstructions, generally. Calibrated parameters for some reaches are widely transferable, producing accurate geomorphic changes for some uncalibrated sites. However, large errors along some reaches indicate that reach‐specific parameterization is recommended. Turnover times are underpinned by the assumption that areas of floodplain previously unvisited by the channel are reworked. This assumption has been challenged by studies that show floodplain (re)occupation rates vary spatially. However, this limitation is less important for the short‐duration simulations presented here. The simulations reconstruct floodplain turnover times estimated by mapped rates mostly successfully, demonstrating the potential applicability of calibrated parameters over much longer timescales. Errors in the form of under‐predicted erosion rates propagated, resulting in over‐predicted turnover times by even greater magnitudes. © 2020 The Authors. Earth Surface Processes and Landforms Published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd. Using CAESAR‐Lisflood, recent historic river channel changes for several floodplain reaches are simulated and compared