Optimization of risk stratification for anticoagulation-associated intracerebral hemorrhage: net risk estimation

Background Every anticoagulation decision has in inherent risk of hemorrhage; intracerebral hemorrhage (ICH) is the most devastating hemorrhagic complication. We examined whether combining ischemic and hemorrhagic stroke risk in individual patients might provide a meaningful paradigm for risk stratification. Methods We enrolled consecutive patients with anticoagulation-associated ICH in 15 tertiary centers in the USA, Europe and Asia between 2015 and 2017. Each patient was assigned baseline ischemic stroke and hemorrhage risk based on their CHA 2 DS 2 -VASc and HAS-BLED scores. We computed a net risk by subtracting hemorrhagic from ischemic risk. If the sum was positive the patient was assigned a “Favorable” indication for anticoagulation; if negative, “Unfavorable”. Results We enrolled 357 patients [59% men, median age 76 (68–82) years]. 31% used non-vitamin K antagonist (NOAC). 191 (53.5%) patients had a favorable indication for anticoagulation prior to their ICH; 166 (46.5%) unfavorable. Those with unfavorable indication were younger [72 (66–80) vs 78 (73–84) years, p = 0.001], with lower CHA 2 DS 2 -VASc score [3(3–4) vs 5(4–6), p