The Rise of Earthquake Correlation Range and the Chains of Earthquakes before Large Seismic Events

The paper summarizes the results of the experiment on advance earthquake forecasting using the Reverse Tracing of Precursors (RTP) algorithm based on the phenomenon of the increase in seismicity correlation range before large earthquakes. During the test period from 2003 to 2019, 28 strong earthquakes occurred in five regions of the world, and 23 of these events fell within the regions and alarm intervals diagnosed by the algorithm. The probability of occasional success in the regions was at most 30% and averaged about 15%. These results confirm the efficiency of the RTP algorithm. The tests have also shown a high degree of nonrandom coincidence of the strong earthquakes and their preceding indicators in the form of the increase in the correlation range—the chains of the earthquakes.