Country residential building stock electricity demand in future climate – Portuguese case study

•Assessment of residential demand in a changing climate.•Results show potential increase of 5 to 60% of the residential demand.•Space heating and cooling needs may decrease 33% and increase 20-fold, respectively.•Electrification of appliances is the main driver for change in demand. The future residential energy demand is expected to be significantly affected by increasing electrification rates and climate change. This study uses a Monte Carlo-based approach and an ensemble of climate models to address potential changes in electricity demand in this sector. The whole Portuguese residential building stock in 2050 is used as a case study. It is performed a sensitivity analysis for the retrofitting and new construction, floor area of new buildings, electrification of domestic hot water and cooking and, finally, adoption of heat pumps for space heating and cooling. Results show a potential increase of 5 to 60% of the total electricity consumption in the sector. Space heating is expected to decrease by 33% while space cooling shows a possible 20-fold increase. The electrification of domestic hot water and the development of housing stock characteristics are the factors with the largest impact on the overall electricity consumption changes.