Економіко-математичне моделювання державних фінансів України

The article elaborates methodical approaches to modeling indicators of general government sector in Ukraine on the basis of IMF’s recommendations on financial program­ming. The article presents the dynamic four-sector model of Ukraine’s economy “Ekvilibro” (Model) developed by the authors, which applies the principles of general econo­mic equilibrium. The model comprises a range of identities and factor interconnections of the general government sector with other economic sectors: real, external and monetary ones. The model also encompasses a block for estimating the gaps between actual and potential GDP based on Kalman’s multivariate filter and Okun’s method. For accounting the link between the parameters of economic growth and fiscal policy, the Model integrates a block for calculating a cyclically adjusted fiscal balance and a fiscal impulse. This allows for an in-depth analysis of the consequences of fiscal policy, the diagnostic of the degree of its procyclicality, and identification of the structural imbalances of public finances. The government sector model was tested by developing a medium-term fiscal forecast for the period 2018-2020. The results obtained suggest that economic growth factors are sufficient to ensure a stable state of Ukraine’s public finances and implement a relatively active expenditure policy throughout the forecast period. However, the deficit of the fiscal sector will be close to the critical limit of 3% of GDP. Successful model’s simulation on actual data reflects its powerful diagnostic and forecasting properties, which is particularly important for solving the current problems of public financial management in Ukraine that are related, among others, to providing a full-fledged professional dialogue with the IMF and other international creditors, to sound financial programs’ design, to prudent identification of fiscal risks, to measuring the effects and efficiency of fiscal policy.