Carbon Emissions and Economic Growth: A Replication and Extension

I replicate estimates and then extend the analysis from Holtz-Eakin and Selden (1995). The results hold up surprisingly well when adding nearly 20 years and 45 countries to the sample, with several key differences. First, per capita emissions peak at a lower GDP per capita than the original estimates. Second, emissions in 2100 may actually decline in the last part of the century depending on population growth and global convergence. Third, near-term and mid-century forecasts are greater than the original estimates, which appear to have been overly optimistic.