Spatiotemporal dynamics and driving factor analysis of agricultural carbon emissions rate in China from 1997 to 2016

Studying the evolution of the spatiotemporal pattern of agricultural carbon emissions rate and their driving factors and realising the development of low agricultural carbonisation is highly significant in helping guide the carbon reduction of agriculture. This study calculated the agricultural carbon emissions rate in 31 provinces of China from 1997 to 2016. To do this, the Exploratory Time-space Data Analysis(ESTDA) framework and the Geographically Weighted Regression(GWR) model were used to investigate the spatiotemporal dynamic evolution characteristics and driving factors from the perspective of spatiotemporal connection. The results showed that(1) the positive spatial correlation of China′s agricultural carbon emissions rate is weakening, and the spatial variation of inter-provincial agricultural carbon emissions rate shows an expanding trend,(2) the spatial and temporal pattern of China′s agricultural carbon emissions rate has obvious differences in dynamic transition paths, and they have strong stability in both local spatial structure and spatial dependence,(3) the number of synergistic growth provinces shows a decreasing trend, indicating that the spatial pattern of agricultural carbon emissions rate is declining and the transition changed from a synergistic growth-oriented type to a coexistence of synergy and competition,(4) the agricultural carbon emissions rate has a strong local spatial correlation model and spatial transfer inertia, which is characterised by path-dependence or spatial lock-in, and(5) spatial disequilibrium linkage characteristics of driving factors of agricultural carbon emissions rate are significant, and the effect of economic development level decreases gradually from south to north. The distribution pattern of residents′ incomes and planting structure increases from east to west. The effect of cultivated land area contributes significantly to the increase in the carbon emissions rate of agriculture in northeast China. The scale of cultivated land has a negative effect on the carbon emissions rate of agriculture, and the regression coefficient gradually increases from southeast to northwest.