Nutrient Concentration Targets to Achieve Periphyton Biomass Objectives Incorporating Uncertainties

Nutrient concentration targets are an important component of managing river eutrophication. Relationships between periphyton biomass and site characteristics for 78 gravel‐bed rivers in New Zealand were represented by regression models. The regression models had large uncertainties but identified broad‐scale drivers of periphyton biomass. The models were used to derive concentration targets for the nutrients, total nitrogen (TN) and dissolved reactive phosphorous (DRP), for 21 river classes to achieve periphyton biomass thresholds of 50, 120, and 200 mg chlorophyll a m−2. The targets incorporated a temporal exceedance criterion requiring the specified biomass threshold not be exceeded by more than 8% of samples. The targets also incorporated a spatial exceedance criterion requiring the biomass thresholds will not be exceeded at more than a fixed proportion (10%, 20%, or 50%) of locations. The spatial exceedance criterion implies, rather than requiring specific conditions at individual sites, the objective is to restrict biomass to acceptable levels at a majority of locations within a domain of interest. A Monte Carlo analysis was used to derive the uncertainty of the derived nutrient concentration targets for TN and DRP. The uncertainties reduce with increasing size of the spatial domain. Tests indicated the nutrient concentration targets were reasonably consistent with independent periphyton biomass data despite differences in the protocols used to measure biomass at the training and test sites. Research Impact Statement: A novel method demonstrates uncertain regression models can be used to define regional‐scale nutrient concentration targets for managing river eutrophication.