EL NIÑO AND THE SPRING FALLOUT OF BIRDS ON ATTU ISLAND

Examining those years in the dataset where there was a strong ENSO signal in the fall season, we find that the following May is characterized by anomalously strong westerly winds in the northwest Pacific, conditions that are appropriate for large Asian bird fallouts at Attu. Because of the time lag between the warm El Niño sea surface temperatures in the fall and the spring Asian bird count at Attu, as well as the strong correlation between ENSO and the bird fallout, the number of Asian birds arriving at Attu in spring is predictable the previous autumn.