The Drivers of China’s Regional Carbon Emission Change—A Structural Decomposition Analysis from 1997 to 2007

Using three official multiregional input–output tables and carbon emission data, we decompose the change in carbon emission for eight regions of China between 1997 and 2007. We do so according to the following seven partial effects: (i) Changes in energy end-use structure, (ii) effect of energy intensity, (iii) the added value’s share of gross output, (iv) changes in sub-industry structure, (v) changes in the substitution of import for intermediate inputs, and changes in (vi) structure and (vii) level of final demand. We find energy intensity contributes most to CO2 abatement throughout China, while other factors vary widely across the different regions. We suggest that governments consider regional disparity and CO2 flows when formulating policies; structural change with an eye toward energy-savings and general efficiency improvements, like better insulated buildings, are among measures we deem effective.