Influencing Factors and Mathematical Prediction of Shale Adsorbed Gas Content in the Upper Triassic Yanchang Formation in the Ordos Basin, China

Evaluating absorbed gas content (AGC) in shales is crucial for accurately characterizing shale gas reservoirs and calculating resource potential. To investigate geological factors influencing AGC, 15 shale samples collected from the Yanchang Formation underwent related experiments. Then geochemistry features, mineral compositions, pore structure parameters and external factors were analyzed. The actual AGC was calculated using the Langmuir equation. Single geological factors acting on the AGC were discussed by the single-factor correlation analysis. Finally, four main influence factors (total organic carbon, S1, quartz content and formation temperature) were selected out from the 12 influence factors to establish the mathematical prediction model through the multi-factor regression statistical analysis method using SPSS software. The model was verified as being reliable with R2 as high as 0.8046 and relative error less than ±20%. Comparisons show that both the CH4 isothermal adsorption experimental method and the multi-factor regression analysis method have their own applicability and disadvantages, and they can complement each other in evaluating AGC in shales. Synthetic evaluation of AGC indicates that the Yanchang shale has an overall moderate AGC occupying about 58% of the total, which is helpful to extend shale gas production time of the Yanchang reservoir. Though under the present conditions, economic benefits of the continental shale gas are not obvious, the shale resource potential of Yanchang formation can’t be ignored.