The Middle East Post‐Petroleum: Averting the Storm

Envisioning a post-oil era leaves an ominous uncertainty hanging over the ruling elites in the Middle East and North Africa (MENA), particularly in the oil-exporting countries. What is the proper strategy for a transition to a more reliable and sustainable economy? While the resource curse is widely regarded as having contributed to the underdevelopment of the region, recent studies demonstrate that oil wealth in and of itself provides a less compelling explanation for economic decline. Oil wealth does not necessarily weaken state institutions; rather, a rentier economy requires governments to perform remarkably well in order to effectively manage financial gains. What will happen to “the viability of these countries if they can no longer rely on oil and gas exports, or if they run out?” The global trend toward alternatives to fossil fuels is likely to undermine oil-dependent MENA economies, and many countries have come to realize that the move to low-carbon-emission energy sources is inevitable. Few within MENA are naive enough to think that making the transition to the post-oil era will be easy. The gradual depletion of petroleum reserves is an aspect of concern for the region’s oil-rich countries, especially if their governments are intent on building a sustainable economy.