Spatially Explicit Analytical Models for Social–Ecological Systems

Designing conservation strategies that address global change requires quantification of the role of humans, their institutions, and their environment in producing conservation action. We provide a framework to extend social–ecological systems analysis into spatially explicit, probabilistic models of conservation action that integrate theoretically supported indicators of social willingness, institutional capacity, and environmental value to aid conservation planning. We contend that explaining where conservation has occurred previously, identifying opportunities for future conservation, evaluating potential contributions of those opportunities, and designing evaluations of causality necessitates explicit consideration of these dimensions. We demonstrate the utility of our approach for conservation practitioners and researchers by evaluating conservation easement activity along the Pacific Coast of the United States. In this case, models including combinations of social and institutional factors and those including all dimensions better explained easement occurrence than did simpler models and illustrate the importance of models that capture each dimension of our framework.