Prediction of current and future potential distributions of the Eucalyptus pest Leptocybe invasa (Hymenoptera: Eulophidae) in China using the CLIMEX model

BACKGROUND The wasp Leptocybe invasa Fisher & LaSalle (Hymenoptera: Eulophidae), a Eucalyptus (Myrtaceae) pest native to Australia, has caused economic and ecologic losses in China. It is a serious pest in southern provinces. Because climate is a limiting factor in insect distribution, we used the model CLIMEX to predict the effect of climate change on potential current and future distributions of L. invasa in China. Data were collected on the current locations of this wasp, along with the damage incurred to Eucalyptus. These data were used to create a forecast model to predict potential current and future distribution maps of L. invasa in China. RESULTS The verification results showed that 99.5% of the distribution samples formulated by the model are highly reliable and accurate. The result predicted that the potential current distribution of L. invasa will concentrate south of the Yellow River basin. The future distribution maps predicted a small‐scale potential expansion north–northwest of Guangxi and more areas within China will provide increasingly suitable habitats for colonization by L. invasa. CONCLUSION These distribution predications will be useful in determining where preventive and control measures should be implemented against this pest wasp in Eucalyptus throughout China. © 2019 Society of Chemical Industry There is a climate model that can predict a place where invasive species suitable for colonization. The study shows the potential distribution of invasive wasp L. invasa in China.