Spatio-temporal dynamics and scenarios simulation of trade-offs between ecosystem services in Min Delta urban agglomeration

The Min Delta urban agglomeration includes three cities(Xiamen, Quanzhou, and Zhangzhou) and is an open coastal area in China. Since the 21 st century, rapid urbanization has seriously affected the ecological security and ecosystem services function of the region and has restricted the sustainable development of the local economy and society. For this reason, understanding the trade-offs and synergies of ecosystem services in the Min Delta urban agglomeration is of considerable significance to the coordinated linkage management of ecological security and the sustainable development of social economy in this region. This paper estimated four kinds of ecosystem services(water conservancy, soil conservation, NPP(Net primary productivity), and food supply) in the Min Delta urban agglomeration, and the spatial-temporal dynamics and trade-offs-synergies among the ecosystem services were analysed using correlation and spatial analyses. Moreover, the spatial distribution and trade-offs of ecosystem services in 2030 were simulated under different scenarios.The results showed that: From 2005 to 2015, trend for all four types of ecosystem services were decreased, and there was a synergies relationship between water conservancy, NPP and soil conservation services. However, there was a trade-offs between food supply service and the other three services. From 2005 to 2015, the trade-offs and synergies between the four services remained unchanged, the degree of complex changes have taken place. In terms of spatial distribution characteristics, the degree of ecosystem service trade-offs and synergies in Jinjiang river basin is higher than that in Jiulong river basin. The trade-offs and synergies relationship of ecosystem service in three cities of Min Delta urban agglomeration presents uniformly in Xiamen > Quanzhou > Zhangzhou. In different scenario Settings, there was a significant decrease in the four ecosystem services under the natural scenario, and the synergistic relationship was mainly in a downward trend, while the trade-offs relationship was intensified. Compared with the planning scenario, the synergistic relationship under the protection scenario was higher and the trade-offs relationship was lower.