Research on Risk Assessment of Water Inrush Caused by Fault Activation Based on Unascertained Mathematics Theory

With increasing of mining depth, mining disasters become complex and serious. In deep coal mining, confined water inrush caused by fault activation has become an important constraint to safety and normal mining. This paper summarized influence factors to fault activation, and evaluated risk of water inrush based on unascertained mathematics theory. Main works and conclusions as followed. (1) Based on AHP theory, with analyzed influence factors to fault activation and water inrush, established risk assessment indicator system synthetically. (2) Established an unascertained risk assessment mathematical model to water inrush caused by fault activation, and determined classification standard of indicator, specific evaluation procedure, measure function of single indicator, and confidence criterion to risk. (3) With happened water inrush disaster and accident, tested and verified feasibility and reliability of assessment system and method. Finally, it is proved that risk assessment system based on unascertained mathematical theory can be used to evaluate confined water inrush caused by fault activation effectively.