Future trends of excess mercury in Asia in response to Minamata Convention on Mercury

Owing to rapid industrialization, Asia has become the main source of mercury emissions and a significant net importer of mercury.Therefore, the situation regarding excess mercury in Asia needs to be better understood. In this study, mercury flows and excess mercury in 2010–2050 in Asian regions, with a particular focus on China, are assessed under updated assumptions. The excess mercury in China in 2030 and 2050 is estimated to be 125 and 284 tons, respectively. The cumulative excess mercury in China will reach around 10,000 tons in 2050 under the assumption of no export of it in the years 2010–2050. In addition, the year in which mercury reaches a surplus in Asia (excl. China) is estimated to be 2039. The mercury supply in Asia strongly depends on the usage of excess mercury in China. It is estimated that mercury supplies will be insufficient in Asia until at least 2017. These predictions should support decision-making and planning for long-term storage capacity, discussions of regional coordination, securing of technical support, and development of the basic design of related facilities.