Wind Estimate by a Mesoscale Model

Wind is an energy source that has been used for a long time to reach many goals, but has recently become very important in electricity generation. In Rio Grande, a city located in Rio Grande do Sul state, in the extreme south of Brazil, wind forecast is important due to several weather phenomena of different time and space scales that act in the region. They make wind energy be one of the most difficult energy sources to be forecasted, since small variations of wind estimates may result in large differences in energy that is effectively generated. This study aimed at evaluating the performance of a mesoscale model to simulate wind intensity and estimating electricity production by aerogenerators, with and without nudging. This method enabled simulations to be carried out for a long time, with no spin-up time. The period of study is from June 9th to 14th, 2017, with two horizontal grids nested, of 3 and1 km. Results showed that the model is more accurate when nudging rather than spin-up is used. Nevertheless, the model still leads to errors in power forecast, by comparison with the wind power measured at the aerogenerator.