Dangerous neighborhoods: State behavior and the spread of ethnic conflict

This article argues that the spread of ethnic conflict across international borders is a result of purposive repressive state action combined with political opportunity which allows the ethnic group to mobilize in response. We test our argument using a bivariate probit model to simultaneously estimate the risk of repression escalation and the spread of ethnic conflict (1976–2009), and find that the likelihood of both increases in the presence of relatively large, territorially concentrated transnational ethnic groups, and that nationalist governments are more likely to escalate repression amidst nearby ethnic violence. Political crises also exacerbate the risk of ethnic conflict spread.