Assessment of Variations in the Temperature-Rainfall Trend in the Province of Macerata (Central Italy), Comparing the Last Three Climatological Standard Normals (1961–1990; 1971–2000; 1981–2010) for Biosustainability Studies

The objective of this paper is to understand spatial climate change in relation to temperature and precipitation, analysed in the last 3 climatological standard normal periods (1961–1990; 1971–2000; 1981–2010), in order to monitor and provide prevision about biodiversity, in the province of Macerata, central Italy. The data of 30 weather stations for temperature and 60 rain gauges for precipitation from 1961 to 2010 were statistically interpolated, with the use of elevation as independent variable. Using an innovative map algebra, mathematical analysis and geostatistical steps in a GIS environment, we report the difference between interpolations of precipitation and temperatures detected in Macerata’s territory in the last three climatological standard normal periods. The results have shown a general positive trend, with an increase of temperature of about 0.7 °C from 1961 to 1990 to 1981–2010 and an opposite tendency for precipitation with a decrease of about 30 mm from one standard period to the following one (1961–1990, 1981–2010). Furthermore, the analysis of areal variations between the different climatological standard normals has allowed the identification of some areas in countertrend, mainly located in the municipality area of Macerata for precipitation, and in the Sibillini mountains for temperature and precipitation. The areal variations reported are discussed in relation to climate change analysis and its assessment for future modelling studies on environmental monitoring and biodiversity loss prevention. The additional purpose of this analysis is to develop a new method of research to address small-scale environmental climate problems, avoiding generalizations that are sometimes unrepresentative.