Potential distribution and conservation priority areas of five species in Northeast China

Global climate change has already altered species distribution and diversity. It is significant to study the priority protection area of species to develop dynamic strategies for biodiversity conservation under climate change scenarios. In the current study,we estimated the potential distribution of five species( Asian black bear (Ursus thibetanus), moose (Alces alces), otter (Lutra lutra), sable (Martes zibellina), and black-billed capercaillie (Tetrao parvirostris)) in Northeast China over time using Maxent. We used nine general circulation models( GCMs),and four representative concentration pathways( RCPs) to derive future climate projections over three time periods( 2030,2050,2070), and then modeled species distributions using these predicted environmental measurements for each time period. Zonation was combined with the results from Maxent to identify priority areas,which were further used to optimize the current nature reserve systems.According to the evaluation results of nine GCMs,appropriate climate models in Northeast China were obtained. Based on the GAP analysis for these conservation priority areas,proposals for priority conservation plans were made. The results showed that climate change in the study area would cause a considerable decline in the total distribution areas of the five species. However,different projections by GCMs may cause uncertainty of the predicted distributions. By comparing the species potential distributions,these four GCMs( CCSM4,Nor ESM1-M,Had GEM2-AO,and GFDL-CM3) performed well in Northeast China. The mean percentage of species potential range loss increased,as 62. 16% range loss by 2030;-73.93% by 2050; and-78. 46% by 2070. Conservation priority areas were mainly distributed in a few national nature reserves in the Changbai,Lesser Khingan,Greater Hinggan,and Wanda mountains.