1510-P: A1C-Modified Atherosclerosis Risk in Communities Prediction Equation for Diabetes Can Be Replaced in Africans by Fasting Glucose

In Africa 70% of people living with diabetes (DM) are undiagnosed. To address this challenge, prediction equations must be tested in Africans. As the A1C-modified Atherosclerosis Risk in Communities (ARIC) DM prediction equation was optimized in African Americans, our goal was to test in Africans: 1) ability of the equation to detect undiagnosed DM; 2) contribution of each biochemical variable to the equation; 3) independent value of each biochemical variable. The equation has 5 clinical and 4 biochemical variables: HDL, TG, A1C and fasting plasma glucose (FPG). Participants were 421 African-born blacks living in the U.S. (66% male; age 38±10y (mean ±SD); BMI 27.5±4.4 kg/m2). OGTT was performed. DM diagnosis required 2h glucose ≥200 mg/dL. Area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AROC) predicted DM. Youden Index estimated optimal cut points. DM occurred in 6% (27/421). AROC for the full equation was 0.84. Only with FPG excluded from the equation did the AROC decline (P