Models for predicting tree and stand development on larch plantations in Hallormsstaður, Iceland

The aim was to model the growth of Siberian larch (Larix sibirica Ledeb.) and Russian larch (Larix sukaczewii Dyl., syn. L. sibirica var. sukaczewii) plantations in Hallormsstaður, Iceland. The field inventory was carried out in eastern Iceland in June 2006. Models were constructed for predicting dominant height, total tree height and 5-year diameter increment. Several linear and non-linear forms of models were tested in preliminary analyses to find the equations that fitted the modelled characteristics best. Due to the spatially hierarchical correlation structure of the data (stands, plots and trees), the assumption of non-correlated error terms did not hold. Therefore, a random parameter modelling approach was adopted using mixed models when the estimates obtained for the random effects were statistically significant. The variance estimates for the random effects can be further used to calibrate the models. The models generated here performed well with independent test data and were consistent with the forest growth theory. They can be used to evaluate site quality and to estimate the growth and yield of larch stands in eastern Iceland in connection with forest planning.