Developing and Validating a Tool to Predict Placements in Administrative Segregation: Predictive Accuracy With Inmates, Including Indigenous and Female Inmates

The last 15 years have witnessed considerable concern regarding the use of segregation. Attempts to reduce segregation would benefit from being able to identify which inmates are at greatest risk for being placed in segregation. The goal of the current research project was to develop an actuarial scale to assess the risk of being placed in administrative segregation for inmates in federal prison in Canada. A total sample of inmates (N = 16,701) was randomly divided into a development sample (N = 11,110) and a validation sample (N = 5,591). Of the 413 potential predictor variables examined, 86% significantly predicted segregation placements. The item pool was reduced using both conceptual and empirical methods. Although several scales were developed and tested, the most efficient option was a simple scale with six static items. Predictive accuracy of this scale was high in the validation sample, as well as for subgroups (e.g., Indigenous and female inmates), and it also significantly outperformed other assessments already used by the prison service. We found that it is possible to develop a simple and easy-to-use scale that would be effective in identifying inmates at risk for placements to administrative segregation, which would be an important first step in efforts to intervene to reduce risk of segregation placement. Implications for developing risk assessment tools and applying to subgroups are discussed.