Work and welfare‐state trajectories in Norway over two decades: Has the goal of getting more people into work been achieved?

In this study, we investigated the work and welfare‐state trajectories of three cohorts of middle‐aged Norwegian inhabitants over a period of two decades (1994–2014). The period of this study is particularly interesting because of an extensive welfare reform that was initiated in 2006 and completed in 2011. We addressed two questions: What were the most typical labour market and welfare‐state trajectories for middle‐aged people over the past two decades, and have they changed? Second, did the work and welfare‐state trajectories of a major target group of the NAV reform – adults with a high risk of health‐related exclusion – change during our observation period? Over the period, we witnessed a sharp drop in the number of people in stable employment. Furthermore, rather than solving the problem of permanent health‐related exclusion from the labour market, policy changes have created a new problem by steering people into temporary and less secure income sources from the welfare state.