Biometric Elections in Poor Countries: Wasteful or a Worthwhile Investment?

Elections have emerged as a leading area for the application of biometric technology in developing countries, despite its high costs and uncertainty over its effectiveness. Why then do countries pursue such programs, often with the support of donors? The paper considers the costs and benefits of technology, where the latter involves its potential to reduce the probability of seriously disputed elections that escalate into violence. Based on the limited data available, it finds that a reduction in the probability of postelection violence by only a few percentage points could offset the cost of the technology. However, this is far from assured; we argue that biometric technology can only contribute to less disputed and less violent elections in particular settings, those where democracy is not yet well institutionalized but where political parties value the legitimacy conferred by elections that are sufficiently credible for their results to be accepted. One priority is therefore to screen potential cases carefully, before investing in costly programs that have a low probability of success. Another step toward using technology more effectively to underpin sustainable elections would be to build on voter registration drives to strengthen permanent identification assets such as civil registration and national ID programs that can serve as the basis for the voter roll. 生物识别技术在贫困国家选举中的应用：浪费还是值得投资？ 发展中国家的选举是生物识别技术应用的首要领域，尽管此技术的高花费和不确定性不亚于其有效性。既然如此，为何国家会采纳这类计划，且后者时常受到捐赠者的支持呢？本文考量了技术的成本和收益，收益包括其有能力减少严重被扰乱且可能升级为暴力事件的选举的可能性。基于有限的数据，本文发现，选举后发生暴力事件的可能性仅需减少几个百分点便能抵消技术成本。然而，目前还远不能确保这一结论。本文主张，生物识别技术仅能在特定背景下促进减少选举中的冲突和暴力事件，即那些民主还未被很好地制度化，但政党重视选举赋予的合法性，此合法性又能充分地让选举结果获得认可的国家。因此，首要任务则是在斥资那些成功率较低的计划之前认真地筛查可能的情况。另一个更有效地使用技术以支持可持续选举的步骤则是，鼓励选民进行登记，进而加强长期识别资产，例如公民登记计划和国民身份识别计划，它们能作为选民名单的基础。 Elecciones biométricas en países pobres: ¿una inversión inútil o valiosa? Las elecciones han emergido como un área líder para la aplicación de tecnología biométrica en países en desarrollo, a pesar de sus altos costos e incertidumbre sobre su efectividad. ¿Por qué, entonces, los países siguen estos programas, a menudo con el apoyo de los donantes? El documento considera los costos y beneficios de la tecnología, donde esta última implica su potencial para reducir la probabilidad de elecciones seriamente disputadas que se conviertan en violencia. Sobre la base de la limitada información disponible, encuentra que una reducción en la probabilidad de violencia posterior a las elecciones en solo unos