Site suitability analysis for tef (Eragrostis tef) within the contiguous United States

•Geospatially analyzed the potential for tef to serve as a sequential crop for C3 grasses.•AHP and MCE were used in combination to identify suitable sites for tef within the U.S.•Between 32 and 33% of the contiguous U.S. is highly suitable for sequential cropping of tef.•Based on current known locations of tef cultivation, the AHP/MCE method is highly accurate. Livestock production has increased globally over the past 50 years to meet the demand of population growth and, along with it, increased demand for meat. Agricultural managers are pressed to increase production of forage for grazing to meet these demands, along with crop production for both humans and livestock. Therefore, nutritious forage for livestock that can serve as a sequential crop grown within the rotation of major food crops (e.g., wheat) is desired. Eragrostis tef (tef) is native to Ethiopia and is the most commonly cultivated crop in that region. However, because it is a C4 grass, it has the potential to be grown in the United States during the summer months as it is drought resistant, not requiring irrigation. Despite the potential benefits of incorporating tef in the United States, there is limited research about the suitability of this crop in the country. Using a weighted overlay approach and the analytical hierarchy process (AHP), this study identifies suitable sites for tef production within the 48 contiguous United States. Using AHP in a Geographic Information System (GIS), this study assesses elevation, slope, insolation, soil type, average precipitation (without irrigation), average temperature, minimum temperature, and land cover to identify sites suitable for the cultivation of this nutritious forage. Results show that within the early-summer (May, June, July; MJJ) 32.38% of the contiguous United States is highly suitable for tef cultivation. In the late-summer (July, August, September, JAS), 32.68% is highly suitable. The findings at the state level suggest that Texas, Kansas, South Dakota, North Dakota, Nebraska, Iowa, Delaware, Kentucky, and Ohio can take on the cultivation of tef to support livestock, sequentially grow tef with wheat, or begin cultivation of a specialty crop. Additionally, using the known United States locations in which tef is currently cultivated, an accuracy assessment of the GIS and site suitability method found the technique to be highly accurate.