H5N1: UN MODELO EPIDEMIOLÓGICO ESPACIO TEMPORAL EN AVES DOMÉSTICAS Y SILVESTRES/H5N1: AN SPATIO-TEMPORAL EPIDEMIOLOGIC MODEL IN DOMESTIC AND WILD BIRDS

The highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI) H5N1 virus that emerged in southern China in the mid- 1990s has in recent years evolved into de first HPAI panzootic. This avian disease is zoonosic, so it has interest in animal and public health. Many authors have tried to analyse the factors that can be contributing to its spread so far since 2006, so as to improve its control and erradication in countries like Vietnam and Thailand. In this study we have chosen Egypt, a country where this disease is endemic, to analyse the factors that can be conditioning the disease dynamics. In the obtained results we emphasize the spatial distribution that occure around the Nile river and a temporal distribution in four "epidemic waves". The importance of each risk factor in the presence of this disease in Egypt will be discused too. [PUBLICATION ABSTRACT]